BRIEF OVERVIEW: We are tracking a moderate to potentially fairly solid SW swell for the first couple days of the event waiting period (24th-25th) from a storm now centered around 2000 miles from Peru. That swell will receive reinforcements on  the 26th-27th with the surf leveling off, before fading for the 28th-29th. A smaller, but possibly fun size, SW swell is currently on the long range radar for the final couple days of the event.

Long Range Surf Outlook: The event will kick off with a nice shot of SW swell (205-220) thanks to storm activity now centered around 2000 miles from Punta Hermosa. At this point it appears that this swell will build in for Friday the 24th, continue on the 25th and then ease for the 26th. The storm creating this swell is not especially strong or large, but it is relatively close by. Please note that we are going to stay below model guidance on the size of this swell for now, as it does seem like our LOLA swell model is running too hot based on what we have seen from this storm thus far. We will refine this forecast in our next couple updates as we are able to gather more data on this still very active storm. At this point we expect surf in the head high to a few feet overhead range for Fri/Sat the 24th-25th, with larger sets possible and pushing double overhead (10’ faces).  Stay tuned, we will have more concrete numbers in Wednesday’s update.

The next SSW swell that we’ll be monitoring is currently on track to build in for Sunday afternoon the 26th and continue on Monday the 27th. If the storm setting up this swell behaves as currently forecast, we would see the surf level off from earlier in the weekend vs adding any new size. So overhead surf could continue Sunday and Monday, before tapering off Tue/Wed.

Going into the long range, model guidance currently indicates a fun run of SW swell could finish out the final 2-3 days of the event holding period, from a series of modest strength fetches that will slide past New Zealand in the next few days. We’re lower confidence on exact size and arrival time this far out, but head high’ish surf does look possible for the 30th-1st time frame if these storms behave as forecast. Stay tuned, we’ll have more refined details on each of the above swells in our next couple forecast updates.

Wind/Weather:  At this point looking like a pretty standard wind and weather pattern for the first couple/few days of the event holding period: mostly light/variable wind in the mornings, followed by light to moderate onshore SSW/SW wind in the afternoons.

Next Update: Wednesday evening, October 22nd

The Surfline wave heights chart of the South Pacific displays the moderate SW swell developing for the opening days of the event holding period, with smaller SW swell possible for the end of the holding period from storm activity near New Zealand.

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